Sign up for free newsletter


Contact :
1665 Union St. Suite A
San Diego
United States of America
CA 92101

Probabilities Fund Management LLC, a San Diego based registered investment advisor established in 2007 serves as manager of the Probabilities Fund (PROTX), a liquid alternative mutual fund. The Probabilities Fund seeks capital appreciation by systematically investing to gain long, short or leveraged exposure primarily to the S&P 500 through Index ETFs. The strategy employs a systematic approach utilizing seasonal trends and patterns, many of which are discussed in depth in the Stock Trader's Almanac, that have historically had a statistically significant impact on stock market correlation may provide diversification benefits to traditional portfolio allocations. Formerly a hedge fund available only to accredited investors, founded January 1, 2008, the Fund converted to an open-ended mutual fund at the end of 2013.  
Joseph B. Childrey
Mr. Childrey developed an investment philosophy that incorporates the principles of behavioral finance and trend following. He launched and managed the Probabilities Fund L.P., a  long/short hedge fund, for six years before converting the fund to a mutual fund. Mr. Childrey served private and institutional clients at AG Edwards/Wells Fargo for 15 years, starting his career at PaineWebber. An inventor, Mr. Childrey co-invented with Jon Jewitt a patented product in the consumer electronics industry that is marketed and sold worldwide. 
Mr. Childrey graduated from Western Maryland College with a BA in Sociology.
Jonathan L. Chatfield
CFA, CCO and Director of Trading
CFA, Chief Portfolio Manager Mr. Chatfield has over 20 years of experience in the investment management industry. He has served previously as a portfolio manager and investment  management consultant and has developed computer software for the financial services industry. 
Mr. Chatfield holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a member of the CFA Society of San Diego and the CFA Institute. He received a BS in Agricultural and Managerial Economics from the University of California, Davis.
Jeffrey Hisrch
Chief Market Strategist
Mr. Hirsch is Chief Market Stagiest Probabilities Fund Management and of editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and Almanac Investor eNewsletter at and author of The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles (Wiley, 2012) and Super Boom: Why the Dow Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit from It  (Wiley, 2011). A 25-year Wall Street veteran he took over from founder Yale Hirsch in 2001. Mr. Hirsch is a Yahoo Finance contributor and regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and many other financial media outlets.
Allen Shepard
Research Consultant
PhD, Investment Committee Consultant Dr. Shepard co-developed the Fund’s investment strategy with Mr. Childrey and has served as an outside consultant to the investment committee since the firm’s inception. Dr. Shepard has developed proprietary hedging models for use in managing preferred and fixed-income securities, and is currently Vice President and  Senior Risk Analyst at Stonebridge Advisors. Dr. Shepard held positions as a Gibbs instructor in the Mathematics Department at Yale University. 
Dr Shepard received his PhD in Mathematics from Brown University and a BA in Mathematics from Hampshire College
other gfm publications