The financial industry could lose up to USD1tn if it fails to respond to climate change
The financial industry could lose up to USD1 trillion in the event of major policy shifts that aim to slow climate change, such as levying a carbon tax. However, banks, insurers and asset managers have the opportunity to reduce these risks and increase their earnings potential by reallocating capital to greener companies and investments.
Those that move fast will be best placed to capture the growing revenue pool, which today is worth USD40 billion globally but is expected to grow to USD100-150 billion as transition financing and sustainable investing grow.
This is according to “Climate Change: Three Imperatives For Financial Services,” a new report by Oliver Wyman, a global management consultancy. The report finds that while a growing number of banks are making steps to reallocate capital, fewer than 10 per cent of the industry have a robust data-driven approach to do so. Banks can’t risk falling behind. Previous studies have estimated that the green economy will require up to USD6 trillion of capital mobilised in the coming years.
The report highlights three recommendations that banks must follow in the face of climate change:
1 Act on the risks. The report looks in depth at the potential impact of a carbon tax, estimating it could drive credit losses of up to USD1 trillion, and explores other climate risk types. While much is uncertain, it is clear that these risks are material. And yet few firms are systematically factoring them into decision-making today.
2 Seize the opportunity. The report profiles the market in sustainable finance and estimates USD100 billion-plus in new revenue potential, across investing, financing, data and advisory. Those able to move fast and work across boundaries to shape the evolving market are best placed to win.
3 Steer top down. Investor, customer and regulator pressure on financial firms is increasing in many markets. To get ahead of this, firms need to act proactively to steer capital and show progress in reducing the carbon intensity of the portfolio. More fundamentally, this is an opportunity for the industry to playing a leading role in one of the defining issues of our time.
James Davis, Partner and a lead author of the report, says: “The financial industry can have a significant impact on accelerating the transition to a green economy by proactively steering capital towards the businesses and technologies that will drive it. Our analysis shows that there are strong commercial reasons to act – the financial risks are material and need to be incorporated into decision-making, while sustainable finance is one of the most promising areas for revenue growth in the industry at the moment. This is an opportunity for the industry to lead.”
Ted Moynihan, Global Head, Financial Services, adds: “The important thing now is that the industry moves into action. The work is complex, there are many competing frameworks, and there are important data gaps. It’s clear that the risks and opportunities are large enough to make this a priority for management teams. There’s a lot to be done working bottom-up to adjust the machinery of the organisation, and this needs to be complemented with strong top-down direction setting.”