
Global bond funds set record inflows in early March
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In the week ending 3 March global bond funds posted their biggest weekly inflow in over a decade while global equity funds took in the most money since October 2007, according to EPFR Global.
Cash continues to flee the safe havens of 2006 to 2008: another USD30bn was pulled out of EPFR Global-tracked money market funds going into March as signs of inflationary pressures in economies ranging from China to Canada spur investors to look for higher returns.
In addition to global bond and equity funds, consumer goods and commodity sector and US bond funds were the main beneficiaries during the week.
Investors remained cool to emerging markets assets, although emerging markets bond funds had another solid week that pushed year-to-date inflows over the USD3bn, and were net redeemers from Europe equity funds for the sixth time in the past seven weeks.
But Japan and Pacific equity funds extended their winning runs and sector funds collectively enjoyed their best week since late 3Q09.
Overall, EPFR Global-tracked bond funds took in another USD5.68bn, bringing their total YTD inflow to USD41.3bn. The equity funds absorbed a net USD2.3bn, reducing their YTD outflows to USD11.6bn.
Emerging markets rallied in early March as fears about “Greek contagion” continued to ebb and recent export data showed surprising strength. But flows into all emerging market equity funds only amounted to USD240m, the third straight week of inflows, albeit subdued, into this asset class. Year to date these funds have taken in USD2.2bn of net inflows.
Among the emerging market equity funds the geographically diversified global emerging markets equity funds posted modest outflows while Asia ex-Japan, Latin America and EMEA equity funds posted inflows ranging from USD42m to USD169m.
Investors pulled USD17m from China equity funds - their eighth week of outflows so far this year - ahead of the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, during which China’s exit strategy and its willingness to tolerate potential asset bubbles will be discussed. There are lingering fears that Chinese banks may try to find ways around the new reserve requirements, thereby triggering a harsher response from policymakers. But flows into India equity funds hit a six-week high as service sector data supported predictions of strong growth.
BRIC equity funds extended their current inflow streak to three straight weeks. But they remain well off the torrid pace of 2009, with their YTD average weekly inflow less than half of the USD190m they averaged during 4Q09.
Elsewhere, Africa regional equity funds posted their 26th consecutive week of inflows, flows into Mexico equity funds hit a 19-week high and Vietnam equity funds had their worst week in flow terms since mid-July.
Developed market equity funds received USD2.8bn of net inflows in the latest week, reducing YTD outflows to USD12.2bn. Going into March Europe equity funds were again the only major developed markets fund group tracked by EPFR Global to post outflows. Global equity funds, with USD1.7bn of net inflows, recorded their biggest weekly inflow since October 2007. Japan equity funds tied the two month winning streak that ended in 3Q08 and US equity funds posted inflows for a third consecutive week for the first time since December.
Europe Equity Funds surrendered another USD657m during the week ending 3 March as weak growth continued to supplant Greece’s fiscal woes as the immediate concern for investors. The Eurozone posted quarter-on-quarter growth of only 0.1 per cent during the fourth quarter as consumers again tightened their belts. The weaker euro did draw some fresh cash into funds dedicated to the region‚s principal exporter, Germany.
Japan Equity Funds saw YTD inflows climb to almost USD2bn as they took in fresh money for the tenth consecutive week, with investors continuing to shrug off mixed economic numbers from the world’s second largest economy. The latest round of data showed declines in unemployment, private capital investment and consumer prices and increases in exports, output and the value of the yen versus the US dollar.
Flows into US equity funds were just in the black as redemptions from large cap blend exchange-traded funds were offset by commitments to small, mid and US sector funds. Funds managed for growth outperformed their value counterparts across all capitalizations during the week.
Global equity funds took in USD2.18bn for the week while Pacific equity funds, the other major diversified fund group that invests primarily to developed markets, absorbed USD67m.
Commodity sector funds snapped their eight week losing run and consumer goods sector funds had their best week in over five years in early March as investors regained their appetite for sector exposure. The USD693m committed to commodity sector funds represented a 13-week high, and was driven in part by expectations of higher demand from India, Brazil and other emerging markets whose economies are beginning to hum again. But energy sector funds remained shackled by a stronger US dollar and concerns about the strength of global demand.
Signs of progress in dealing with Greece’s dangerously large fiscal deficit, allied to some more big earnings numbers from US investment bank Goldman Sachs, helped financial sector funds post inflows for the fourth time in five weeks. Real estate sector funds, meanwhile, benefited from some optimistic forecasts for the sector based on recent gains in Asia.
Technology sector funds managed to snap a three week outflow streak, taking in a net USD208m, but telecom sector funds maintained their record of posting outflows every week as YTD outflows inched closer to the USD600m mark.
With China’s exit strategy taking centre stage, the sovereign debt pipeline bulging with new issues and questions being asked about the UK’s fiscal health, the backdrop for EPFR Global-tracked bond funds continues to look ominous. But flows into these funds remained incredibly robust in early March. Global bond funds took in USD2.6bn in the latest week, the biggest one-week total since they were first tracked weekly in 2000. YTD these funds have taken in more than USD16bn in net inflows. Over the same period in 2009, they had seen investor outflows of USD3bn.
US bond funds absorbed another USD2bn as their inflow streak hit 61 consecutive weeks, Emerging markets bond funds saw their YTD inflows climb north of USD4bn and high yield bond funds posted solid inflows as the spread between US Treasuries and JP Morgan’s benchmark EMBI+ index dropped to around 285 basis points.
Once again, flows into US bond funds were again dominated by funds investing in short term debt, with those funds accounting for 50 per cent of all the fresh money committed to this fund group. Balanced funds, which invest in both debt and equities, continued their strong start to 2010 by taking in fresh money for the 13th straight week as YTD inflows climbed over the USD3bn mark.











